Daniel Holz is a professor of physics at the University of Chicago, studying black holes. He is also chair of the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which sets the Doomsday Clock, and director of UChicago’s Existential Risk Laboratory.
This exercise of envisioning “Chicago 2050” is inherently optimistic. It presumes that the city of Chicago will still be here a quarter century from now. We can certainly hope that this is the case, but there is no assurance of the continued existence of the city, the state, the country or even civilization itself.
Over the past century, human ingenuity and technological progress have created numerous ways for humanity to destroy itself, including through nuclear war, climate change, biological threats and, most recently, artificial intelligence. The defining challenge for the coming 25 years is to ensure that new technologies are used for human flourishing. Few cities are as deeply tied to existential risks as Chicago.
The birth of the nuclear age happened here on Dec. 2, 1942, in the middle of the University of Chicago campus. Enrico Fermi and his team built Chicago Pile-1, the first controlled nuclear chain reaction, ushering in humanity’s control of the awesome power of the atom. These Chicago scientists and engineers played a critical role in the Manhattan Project, helping develop the atomic bombs that were used to bring about the unfathomable destruction in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There are now thousands of thermonuclear weapons on high alert, and in less than an hour, the great cities of the world could be reduced to radioactive rubble.
But many of these same Chicago scientists who were responsible for the birth of the nuclear age were also the first scientists to raise the alarm of the existential threat inherent in this new power. Even before the first atomic detonation at the Trinity test, James Franck, Eugene Rabinowitch, Leo Szilard and others issued a report warning of the far-reaching consequences of unleashing the atomic bomb, highlighting the dangers of a nuclear arms race.
These warnings were prescient, as the ensuing decades of the Cold War repeatedly brought the world to the brink of annihilation. In December 1945, Chicago scientists formed the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists of Chicago to warn the public and policymakers of the dangers of nuclear weapons. This was the first organization expressly devoted to mitigating threats to civilization. In 1946, the organization renamed itself as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to reflect the increasingly global aspects of the organization, and in 1947, the Bulletin introduced the Doomsday Clock as a metaphor for how close civilization is to bringing about its own destruction.
The clock started at seven minutes to midnight, and has ticked forward and backward over the intervening decades. In 1991, at the end of the Cold War, the clock was at 17 minutes to midnight. However, since 2012, the clock has relentlessly ticked forward.
The Doomsday Clock is now at 85 seconds to midnight — the closest it has ever been. As detailed in the 2026 Clock Statement, the risks to civilization are intolerably high. A full-scale nuclear war would kill billions of people, with the ensuing nuclear winter and societal breakdown threatening all of human civilization. Nonetheless, global conflicts are intensifying, many involving nuclear-armed states. With the recent expiration of the last nuclear arms agreement between the U.S. and Russia, there is nothing preventing a runaway arms race for the first time in over half a century.
On climate change, the assault on the environment is escalating, with atmospheric carbon dioxide and global sea levels reaching record highs. Droughts, fires, floods and storms continue to intensify and become more erratic, and this will only get worse. Furthermore, the world is running headlong into an AI arms race, with potentially dire consequences, including supercharging disinformation.
The good news is that there are many ways to reduce these global catastrophic risks, and the city of Chicago continues to lead in understanding and mitigating them. On the nuclear front, Chicago is a member of Mayors for Peace, and the City Council passed a “Back from the Brink” resolution. The city is a pioneer in environmental action, with Chicago being the first major U.S. municipality to run entirely on renewable energy. Chicago has been a sanctuary city for decades, starting with the policies of Mayor Harold Washington, and continues to open its arms to all and fight federal overreach. Last weekend, thousands of Chicago-area residents participated in “No Kings” rallies protesting the erosion of democratic norms and the rule of law.
Chicago’s breadth makes it uniquely qualified to navigate the coming decades. The city’s geographic location insulates it from some of the excesses and blinkered thinking that often dominate other metropolises. Chicago is not captured by the tech bros of Silicon Valley, nor the finance bros of Wall Street, nor the politicians of D.C., nor the media moguls of Hollywood. It has pieces of all of these communities, but its whole is much greater than the sum of its parts. Perhaps because of Chicago’s many diverse neighborhoods, or its blue-collar history, or its frigid winters, the city epitomizes the values of hard work, kindness toward others, humility, and basic common-sense and decency. This mindset is critically needed to successfully address humanity’s foremost challenges.
As Chicagoans were the first to emphasize, civilization is fragile, and its persistence should not be taken for granted. We can all hope for a future where 2050 sees a thriving Chicago, and we must all do our part to ensure that we get there.
Daniel Holz is a professor of physics at the University of Chicago, studying black holes. He is also chair of the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which sets the Doomsday Clock, and director of UChicago’s Existential Risk Laboratory.